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36,82968.04,83037.63,83097.39,82820.01,83028.18,83054.66,83170.65,83025.02,83047.0,83040.0,82991.71,83164.0]}],"verdict":{"title":"We tested 7 open-source AI models on Bitcoin. None beat a random walk.","points":["Direction: hit rates between 45% and 54%; 4 of 26 model/horizon pairs are statistically above 50% (best 53.8%, before correcting for 26 tests); none of them beats the random walk overall.","Overall forecast quality (CRPS): 24 of 26 model/horizon pairs are significantly WORSE than the random walk. Best showing: Chronos-2 at 15m (-1.0%).","Over-confidence: their '80%' ranges actually caught the price 17%-81% of the time.","Risk: some models read volatility better than a simple formula (up to +0.09 rank correlation)."],"title_pt":"Testamos 7 modelos de IA open-source no Bitcoin. Nenhum venceu um random walk.","points_pt":["Dire\u00e7\u00e3o: acertos entre 45% e 54%; 4 de 26 pares modelo/horizonte ficam estatisticamente acima de 50% (melhor: 53.8%, sem corrigir para 26 testes); nenhum deles vence o random walk no geral.","Qualidade geral (CRPS): 24 de 26 pares modelo/horizonte s\u00e3o significativamente PIORES que o random walk. Melhor resultado: Chronos-2 em 15m (-1.0%).","Excesso de confian\u00e7a: as faixas de '80%' acertaram o pre\u00e7o s\u00f3 17%-81% das vezes.","Risco: alguns modelos leem a volatilidade melhor que uma f\u00f3rmula simples (at\u00e9 +0.09)."],"beat_random_walk":[]}}