An honest audit of AI price forecasts.
HT / ARENA_001 — Out-of-sample / Vol. 001
Open benchmark. No cherry-picking.
Can AI predict Bitcoin?
Every AI trading tool shows you a pretty chart.
We show you the scoreboard.
80% band
40% band
median
realized
0AI models tested
0forecasts scored
4horizons, 15m → 24h
—out-of-sample period
01 / The leaderboard
The leaderboard.
Measured against doing nothing.
Skill is measured against a random walk.
Click a column header to sort.
02 / Direction vs risk
Direction is a coin flip.
Risk is a closer call.
Each dot is one model at one horizon.
03 / Calibration
Does it mean what it says?
Confidence, audited.
A calibrated model that says "60% chance up" should see up moves 60% of the time.
04 / Forecasts vs reality
Forecasts vs reality.
Frozen first, checked later.
Real out-of-sample forecasts, frozen at the moment they were made.
05 / Live
Right now.
No hindsight possible.
Fresh forecasts every hour, scored as reality arrives.
BTC/USDT
06 / Method
How it's scored.
Same rules for every model.
No cherry-picking. No in-sample backtests.